693
FXUS01 KWBC 172000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 18 2025 - 00Z THU FEB 20 2025
...RECORD COLD TO SPILL FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPANNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST...
...WINTER STORM TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN...
...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN FORECAST ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
A BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE ALSO SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
SLIDES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY, LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST
FROM MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SECTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS,
THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE FORECAST FROM
NORTHEAST MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE IT IS ANTICIPATED TO FEEL
AS COLD AS 60 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THIS LEVEL OF COLD IS LIFE
THREATENING AND COULD SHORTLY LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT MARKING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN MORE
SEASONABLE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AND THE ARCTIC FREEZER WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE
ENTIRE PLAINS AND POINTS EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST, MIDWEST, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS BETWEEN CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON NORTHWARD. DAILY RECORDS FOR BOTH
OVERNIGHT BITTER LOWS AND AFTERNOON COLD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD FROM THE PLAINS AND EXPANDING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
CURRENTLY EXTENSIVE AND SPAN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST TO CENTRAL TEXAS. BE SURE TO DRESS IN LAYERS INCLUDING A
HAT, FACE MASK, AND GLOVES IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE.
AS THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS SINKS SOUTH, A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. STARTING TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS, WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SNOW STRETCHING INTO PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ARE ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST SOUTH BETWEEN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE BORDER INTERSECTION OF MISSOURI,
OKLAHOMA, AND KANSAS, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE BETWEEN 60-80%. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKING JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAROLINAS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. HERE, HEAVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE VA-NC BORDER AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA, WITH IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MOST LIKELY INTO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, AS WELL AS NEIGHBORING
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN WITH A NOTABLE SOUTHWARD TREND OVER THE LAST FEW
FORECAST CYCLES, SO BE SURE TO CHECK OFTEN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS.
ELSEWHERE, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LIGHT LOWER ELEVATION SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART, THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENEFICIAL
OUTSIDE OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AT
MOUNTAIN PASSES. LASTLY, COLD WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MACHINE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE-SHORE BETWEEN
ROCHESTER AND SYRACUSE, NY.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page