852
FXUS06 KWBC 172002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 17 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 27 2025
A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO
END THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 5-DAY MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN WHICH FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS
500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), AND A TROUGH OF VARYING AMPLITUDE ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO THE START OF THIS
PERIOD WITH THE GEFS FAVORING A QUICK TRANSITION TO A POSITIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO) DURING LATE FEBRUARY. THIS POSITIVE AO AND PREVALENT WESTERLY
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA FAVOR NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE LARGEST
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW, AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST
UNDERNEATH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7 WHICH TILTS THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ECENS AND CMCE DEPICT
DAILY TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE-NORMAL BY DAY 10 FOR THIS REGION.
THE ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COUPLED WITH A
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE EAST COAST RESULTS IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS. ON DAY 6 (FEBRUARY 23), MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH ELEVATES
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THAT REGION. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LARGE
AMONG THE ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH ITS TRACK, RANGING FROM ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TO WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE
UPSTREAM AMPLIFIED TROUGH PROMOTES PERIODS OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA. INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. EASTERLY, OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 03, 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE MAINTAIN THE 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF WEEK-2, BUT THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT THIS RIDGE
RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH PACIFIC AT THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.
ENSEMBLE MEANS DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND HOW EXPANSIVE THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOME FOR THE
CONUS. THE GEFS DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE CMCE RETRACTS THIS TROUGH TO THE
HIGHEST LATITUDES OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF
MORE THAN +30 METERS FOR THIS 7-DAY PERIOD. THE PREFERRED ECENS IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HAS A WEAK 500-HPA TROUGH NEAR THE EAST
COAST WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DUE
TO A PREDICTED POSITIVE AO PHASE, LACK OF ANY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, AND A
BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE 500-HPA TROUGH WEAKENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANY LINGERING ANOMALOUS COLD TIMES OFF, THE
INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR
THIS REGION COMPARED TO OUTLOOKS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
DESPITE THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS DURING THIS 7-DAY PERIOD, MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A GRADUALLY WETTER PATTERN OVERALL FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
STATES WHICH BEARS OUT IN THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUT.
HOWEVER, TOOLS GENERALLY HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS WET ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION
TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN OCCURS AND ALSO WHERE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK SETS UP. THE GEFS AND REFORECAST TOOLS AGREE ON HAVING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, BALANCING THE WETTER GEFS AND DRIER
ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. ALSO, THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
UNCALIBRATED MODEL OUTPUT. SINCE THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL, AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.
DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF HAWAII. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR LIHUE ISLAND AS THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER IN WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MILD TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN OFFSET BY REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040205 - 19710205 - 20070212 - 19980228 - 19600227
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040205 - 19710205 - 19600215 - 19980228 - 19570216
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 27 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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