106
FXUS06 KWBC 192002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 19 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2025
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) BECOMES POSITIVE
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS
PREDICTED TO REMAIN BROADLY AMPLIFIED, WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND TROUGHING AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EAST. THE 0Z ECENS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGHING IN THE EAST
COMPARED TO THE 0Z GEFS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA LEADING TO DECREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE MANUAL BLEND. HOWEVER, THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME, WITH MORE RIDGING BUILDING INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA TIED TO THE
FORECAST MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITION.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO RIDGING AND CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND
ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ARE
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL
IS NOTABLY WARMER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO ITS GEFS
COUNTERPART, AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER TROUGHING DEPICTED IN THE 0Z
ECENS. MOST MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND DAY-9
(FEB 28). NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EAST FOR THE
PERIOD AS WHOLE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL, SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE,
AND A LATER START TO THE COOLING TREND. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE REFORECAST TOOLS COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF TROUGHING AND DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
OVER EASTERN ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMBINED WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN
FAVORS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS REGARDING A LESS ACTIVE STROM TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE MONTH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS TO THE GULF COAST. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT A TILT
TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES (GREATER
THAN 40 PERCENT) ACROSS NEW ENGLAND GIVEN THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYS 8 AND 9 (FEB
27-28). ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
TIED TO AN ACTIVE SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND
FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK. A TILT TOWARD ELEVATED
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS FAVORED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII, WITH NEAR-TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THE TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION IN
THE EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE, WITH A VARIABLE HEIGHT PATTERN CONTINUING
ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD MORE TROUGHING. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD, TROUGHING MAY ALSO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS AS THE RIDGING SHIFTS FURTHER UPSTREAM. FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, ALTHOUGH THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC SUPPORTS
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF ALASKA.
THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TIED TO RIDGING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND A COOLING TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE EAST, WITH THE GEFS (ECENS) REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TODAY’S OUTLOOK LEANS
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE PROJECTED
EXTENSION OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE EAST, ALONG WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE UNCALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL (TELECONNECTION AND
ANALOG) TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST
OF ALASKA AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO
REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE LARGEST SHIFT RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS IN THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS. AS THE RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE WEST RETROGRADES,
WITH A MORE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN ITS WAKE, A MORE ACTIVE STORM
TRACK MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF WEEK-2.
FORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER
(GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, AND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WHERE THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE 0Z GEFS AND ECENS ARE
HIGHEST. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
ALONG THE WEST COAST TIED TO DECREASED ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGING BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR-TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII DUE TO CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM
TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD TOOL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A
TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070212 - 19570304 - 19780215 - 19800208 - 19570217
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070212 - 19800210 - 19570304 - 19980302 - 19780214
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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