740
FXCA20 KWBC 201537
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1037 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 20 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 15:40 UTC
..LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
MJO:
THE MJO IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 8. THISÂMJO PHASE GENERALLY FAVORS
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE AMERICAS.
KELVIN WAVE:
NONE SIGNIFICANT KELVIN WAVE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ENSO CONDITIONS:
LA NIÃA
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS REMAINED GENERALLY STABLE... WITH TYPICAL
LA NIÃA CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS
FEBRUARY.
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CARIBBEAN REGION. BY THURSDAY EVENING, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, NORTHWEST CUBA, THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND INTO THE TEHUANTEPEC PASS. IN THE WESTERN
AREAS, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND SOUTHWEST COAHUILA. AS WE
MOVE INTO FRIDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, WHILE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO STRETCH THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF CUBA.
..PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10 TO 15MM IN SOME CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE
ISLAND WITH THE LARGEST IMPACT WILL BE CUBA.
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN MEXICO
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES, IT WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING TEHUANTEPEC LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ),
WHICH IS FORECASTED TO FORM ON THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 40 KNOTS. THIS INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES, PARTICULARLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE EASTERN
AREAS, WHERE THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE, HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS, AND INSTABILITY.
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY, THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN TABASCO, CHIAPAS, AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. IN THESE
REGIONS, THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
..PRECIPITATION INÂMEXICO
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ: A MAXIMA OF 35 - 70MM ON THURSDAY... A MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM ON FRIDAY.
TABASCO, CHIAPAS, AND CHIAPAS: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA:ÂA MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON THURSDAY.
YUCATAN PENINSULA:ÂA MAXIMA OF 15 - 20 ON FRIDAY ... AND A MAXIMA
OF 20 - 35MM ON SATURDAY
..CENTRAL AMERICA
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE BASIN FAVORS THE TRADE WIND OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADES AND CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS, BELIZE AND PANAMA.
THE INTERACTION WITH TOPOGRAPHY CAN FURTHER INFLUENCE LOCAL MAXIMA
OF RAINFALL IN THE REGION.
..PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:BELIZE: MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF
15 - 20 MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAYÂNORTHERN HONDURAS: MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAYÂ
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WEST PANAMÃ: A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON
THURSDAY. A MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAYÂ
THE PACIFIC BASIN OF WEST PANAMÃ: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON
THURSDAY.
EAST PANAMÃ:ÂA MAXIMA OF 15-20 ON THURSDAY
COSTA RICA: A MAXIMA OFÂ15 - 20MM ON FRIDAY
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... RESULTING IN A REDUCTION OF THE DRY
AREAS AND AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
A REGION OF INTEREST IS ECUADOR AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA, WHERE
WARM SST AND THE PACIFIC ITCZ ARE STIMULATING DIURNAL CONVECTION
IN THE PACIFIC BASINS.OVERALL UPPER LEVELS SEEMS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE ONSHORE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ WILL BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR
BY FRIDAY...THIS COULD ENHANCE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBIA. THEREFORE...THE FOLLOWING
MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
ECUADOR COAST/SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ON
THURSDAY... A MAXIMA OFÂ20-45MM ONÂFRIDAY AND 30-60MM ON
SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM ON THURSDAY AND A MAXIMA
OF 20 - 35MM ON SATURDAY
NORTHEAST COLOMBIA: MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AND A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON SATURDAY
INLAND ECUADOR AND INLAND COLOMBIA:Â A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THE ITCZ IN COMBINATION OF UPPER
DEIVERNGECE WILL PROMOTE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION... FROM THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THE LARGEST PRECIPITATION MAXIMA AROUND THE AMAPA.
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ON FRIDAY AND 20 - 40MM ON SATURDAY.
GUIANAS A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL
BE ALONG THE NET ITCZ...WITH MAXIMA OF 20 - 60MM FOR THE FORECAST
CYCLE. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
FOR GRAPHICAL INFORMATION:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
LEDESMA...(WPC)
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