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FXUS06 KWBC 202002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 20 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 02, 2025
THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN BROADLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN THE HIGHER
LATITUDES AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN GOING
INTO MARCH. A TRANSITION IN THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK-2. RIDGING AND
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INITIALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THEN
RETROGRADING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TROUGHING AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TROUGHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE UPSTREAM SUPPORTING NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO RIDGING AND CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND
ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ARE
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ECENS REFORECAST TOOL
IS NOTABLY WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COMPARED TO ITS GEFS
COUNTERPART, AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER TROUGHING DEPICTED IN THE 0Z
ECENS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOST MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES
AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BEHIND DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND DAY-8 (FEB 28). NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EAST FOR THE PERIOD AS WHOLE GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND TRANSITIONAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN. EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE THE REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOL SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF TROUGHING AND DUE
TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN ALASKA LATER IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE LEADING TO A MORE VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING AROUND DAY-10 (MAR 2) FAVORING INCREASING NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) ACROSS NEW ENGLAND GIVEN THE
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYS 7 AND 8 (FEB 27-28). ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TIED TO AN ACTIVE SURFACE LOW
TRACK OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND FURTHER DISPLACED FROM
THE MEAN STORM TRACK. A TILT TOWARD ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES IS FAVORED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, WITH NEAR-TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS DUE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO TRANSITIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THE TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION IN THE
EAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 06, 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AS RIDGING RETROGRADES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH
THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ALL DEPICTING A BROADLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS
THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST COAST. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
EXTENDING THROUGH MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS TIED TO RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND A COOLING TREND LATE IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE EAST, WITH THE GEFS (ECENS) REFORECAST
TOOL DEPICTING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW (ABOVE) NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TODAY’S
OUTLOOK LEANS TOWARD HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH
GIVEN THE STRONGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WARM TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM OF ANY SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF ALASKA AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
AS THE RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE WEST RETROGRADES, AND A MORE CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE, A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING ON
DAY-10 (MAR 2) WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST. THEREFORE, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHER (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, AND ACROSS THE
GULF COAST WHERE THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE 0Z GEFS AND ECENS ARE
HIGHEST. CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST TIED TO DECREASED ONSHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGING
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN FAVORED FOR ALASKA UNDERNEATH ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER HAWAII IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
WITH A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER THE BIG ISLAND, AND ELEVATED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD TOOL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A
TRANSITIONING MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070212 - 19980302 - 19800208 - 19780215 - 20040207
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980301 - 20070212 - 19800208 - 19870218 - 19780214
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 26 - MAR 02, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 06, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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