949
FXUS01 KWBC 210705
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 21 2025 - 12Z SUN FEB 23 2025
...WIDESPREAD RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST BEFORE A SLOW WARMING
TREND SETS IN BY THE WEEKEND...
...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING RAIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTING THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST AFTER ANOTHER MORNING OF
WIDESPREAD RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AS A PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS
AND 20S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE 30S
AND 40S FROM TEXAS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST, AND THE
50S AND 60S INTO FLORIDA. WHILE NOT QUITE AS BELOW AVERAGE, CHILLY
TEMPERATURE ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. DANGEROUSLY COLD SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE AIRMASS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MODIFY A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS OF SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN THE MOST BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
DESPITE THE WARMING TREND, MORNING LOWS WILL STILL FALL NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WILL REMAIN A RISK TO MORE SENSITIVE AREAS
IN THE SOUTH NOT AS ACCUSTOMED TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND
50S, ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SECOND PACIFIC SYSTEM/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REACHING THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WARM
PACIFIC AIR WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS VERY
HIGH LIMITING ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO SOME OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FURTHER
INLAND BRINGING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES AS WELL, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH HERE WITH
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT, FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF
FROM RAIN AND SNOWMELT GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
RIVER FLOODING. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A THEME ACROSS THE
REST OF THE WEST, WITH HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE COMMON TO THE NORTH AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH 60S AND 70S FOR CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE REST
OF THE COUNTRY. SOME LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY.
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