932
FXUS06 KWBC 242017
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 24 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 02 - 06 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE FORECAST MID-LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE BERING
SEA/ADJACENT NORTH PACIFIC AND FROM GREENLAND AND EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE 6-10 PERIOD. THE
ECENS PREDICTS THE DEEPEST ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE VICINITY OF THE BERING
SEA, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF -90 TO -120 METERS. ALL
THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A MODERATE TO STRONG TROUGH OVER THE VICINITY OF
GREENLAND, WITH HEIGHTS FORECASTED TO BE -150 TO -200 METERS BELOW NORMAL.
SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE ATLANTIC, UNDERCUTTING POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE DEPICTED, WITH THE REGIONAL PATTERN REFLECTIVE OF A
POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). A VERY WEAK TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER CALIFORNIA AND/OR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS US (CONUS). A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF ALASKA AND
WESTERN CANADA. OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING THE FORECASTED STRENGTH OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING, RANGING
FROM BARELY ABOVE ZERO METERS (GEFS) TO AT LEAST +60 METERS (ECENS). MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE FORECAST BY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES TO
RANGE BETWEEN +30 AND (APPROXIMATELY) +75 METERS ABOVE NORMAL.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER
MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, ALASKA, AND HAWAII. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL, THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE RAW TEMPERATURE TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, AND EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER PART OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA,
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE HAWAIIAN TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL SUPPORTS PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 70 PERCENT.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES AND ALASKA. THIS PATTERN HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM
THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND RAW PRECIPITATION TOOLS, THOUGH THE TOOLS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, RIO GRANDE, AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, THE INCREASED
ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SHIFT WESTWARD DURING WEEK-2 POSSIBLY
IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, THE ENHANCED ODDS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
AND POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH TIME, THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, SPREADING A LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. FOR ALASKA,
TWO SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA, INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COAST. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THESE SYSTEMS IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AT LOWER LATITUDES, A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF HAWAII IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE WESTERNMOST
PORTION OF THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR NIIHAU AND KAUAI.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FORECASTS,
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, AND PRECIPITATION, IN TERMS OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 10 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER 6-10
PERIOD PERIOD, WITH A PREDICTED MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER NEAR
+200 METERS LOCATED BETWEEN 40N/170W-180W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE BERING SEA
TROUGH PREDICTED DURING THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN ALASKA. IN APPARENT
RESPONSE TO THE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC,
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PRODUCING A
WEAK ANOMALOUS TROUGH. THE GEFS AND ECENS CONNECT THIS WEAK TROUGH WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER TROUGH FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREENLAND,
RESULTING IN COAST-TO-COAST COVERAGE OF WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING. THE CMCE DIFFERS IN THAT IT DOES NOT CONNECT THE TWO
TROUGHS NOTED ABOVE, BUT MAINTAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REGION.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE FORECAST BY THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES FOR
MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS SUPPORT FROM THE
RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE TOOLS. A LARGE AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS DEPICTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AND THE LAST VESTIGES
OF TROUGHING ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE AUTOBLEND’S FAVORED
ANOMALOUS COLD IN THE WEST IS SUPPORTED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BY THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE OUTPUT, AND STANDS IN MARKED CONTRAST WITH THE
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TOOLS WHICH FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH. WHERE THE LARGEST
DISAGREEMENT IS, NAMELY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA DURING WEEK-2. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS, AND WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE VICINITY
OF HAWAII FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS DURING DAYS 8-10, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE STORM, THAT REINFORCE THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS. IN THE WEST, A PREDICTED INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMONG THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND RAW
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, THE GENERAL PATTERN FAVORS A RELATIVELY WET CONUS WITH THE
GREATER PROBABILITIES OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48
STATES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED
FROM STORM SYSTEMS AND ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN ALASKA’S
PRECIPITATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER 6-10 PERIOD, AS SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. FOR HAWAII, THE LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION PREDICTED MAINLY WEST OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ARCHIPELAGO,
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
DUE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, AND VARIATIONS IN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770208 - 19770217 - 20040218 - 19940228 - 19870205
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770208 - 19870204 - 19940228 - 19770218 - 20040218
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 02 - 06 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 04 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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