542
FXUS02 KWBC 281907
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2025
VALID 12Z MON MAR 03 2025 - 12Z FRI MAR 07 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LIKELY TO FOCUS IN
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
PERHAPS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...
..OVERVIEW
AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN
SPLIT FLOW NEXT WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF LEAD TROUGHING EXITING THE
EAST, A WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/LOW ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW WILL TRAVERSE FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.THROUGH
THE EASTERN STATES MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPSTREAM AND DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WEST WITH FOCUS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AND SPREAD ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AND SOME
TERRAIN FOCUSING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM
EMERGES, EXPECT MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
TUESDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WRAPPING RAINS AROUND THE
LOW, WITH ENHANCED SNOW CHANCES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY UP
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST. LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE
PRIMED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LED
TO AREAS OF FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. PEAKING OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY, WITH SOME THREAT CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST. ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST/SOUTHWEST AND ONWARD NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN FOR THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY CONVERGE UPON A
BETTER CLUSTERED OVERALL SOLUTION, ALBEIT WITH LINGERING SMALLER
SCALE SYSTEM DIFFERENCES. THIS WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS
PRIMARILY PRODUCED FROM A BROAD COMPOSITE OF THE FULL SUITE OF MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH WPC CONTINUITY AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALSO LEAD TO ORGAINZED PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS
THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES, WITH LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIMITED AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL BE MODEST. AS THIS FEATURE
EXITS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO FUEL MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINS FROM
THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN U.S. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SIGNAL THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO SET UP FROM THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. SOME AREAS HAVE WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS,
WHICH WOULD EXACERBATE FLOOD POTENTIAL. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A
NOTABLE THREAT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS PER SPC. WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNDER A FAVORABLE COUPLED
UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY,
AND SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BECOME EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH PLACEMENT AT THAT TIME, BUT MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC
IN TERMS OF FLOODING IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SNOW COVERED AREAS OF
THE NORTHEAST, PER THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK, IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
AND ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CANADA. HIGH/GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP SURFACE LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO
CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES
ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH TIME AND MODERATE.
THE GREATEST ANOMALIES, 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY, BUT
SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY, AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL WEDNESDAY. BY NEXT THURSDAY, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY MAY BE NEAR
OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
CAMPBELL/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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