352
FXUS06 KWBC 282002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 10 2025
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE EARLY METEOROLOGICAL SPRING PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DURING EARLY TO MID MARCH. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING VARIABLE
WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. A TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD AND REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WHILE IN THE WEST, TRANSIENT
RIDGING FORECAST NEAR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD GIVES WAY TO A
DEEPER TROUGH BY DAY 10. THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST HAS
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MEAN
TROUGHING ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA,
DUE TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONVERSELY, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF CALIFORNIA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS DUE TO
PREDICTED TRANSIENT RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT SWING FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS DEPICTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, MOSTLY CANCELLING EACH OTHER OUT OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, RESULTING
IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
LEAD TO ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AS MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND DUE TO PREDICTED ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AN ACTIVE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS ONE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EXITS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATER. DUE TO THIS ANTICIPATED ACTIVE PATTERN, ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE
STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY, DRAWING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS WELL. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN
THE PRIOR FORECAST HAS MOSTLY PROGRESSED INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
BRINGING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD. HAWAII TILTS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 14 2025
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN BECOMES LESS PROGRESSIVE IN WEEK-2 BUT MANY
FEATURES REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES
FROM OFF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK GIVES WAY TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS, THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FOR WEEK-2
FEATURES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE FOR ALASKA BUT
THE FORECAST FAVORS CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING WEEK-2.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED, A RAPID WARM-UP IN
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AND
ABOVE-NORMAL IS FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DUE TO PREDICTED TRANSIENT RIDGING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SUBSIDING AND GIVING
WAY TO NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IS FEATURED FOR
ALASKA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE, WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE
STATE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS AS A TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PARTS OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII DUE IN
LARGE PART TO ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ACROSS ADJACENT WATERS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DURING
WEEK-2. AS A TROUGH APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY. THEREFORE, CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WHERE ADVECTION OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
MAY BE MOST PRONOUNCED. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DUE PRIMARILY TO A DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
RESULTING IN ONLY MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA, AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR
THE REST OF THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII
CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19700218 - 19970215 - 20000314 - 19800224 - 19880224
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19700218 - 20040216 - 19880224 - 20000313 - 19920225
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 06 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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