283
FXUS01 KWBC 012001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2025
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 02 2025 - 00Z TUE MAR 04 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS, AND ALSO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE GULF
COAST REGION THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND
A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THERE MAY BE LOCALLY A
FEW INCHES OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BEFORE THEN MODERATING BY NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THIS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
THERE WILL BE WINDY, DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT WITH PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS SEEING THE GREATEST FIRE DANGER THREAT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT THERE WILL BE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL FACILITATE A RETURN OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AN STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, THERE WILL BE CONCERNS FOR GUSTY WINDS, AND THIS
COUPLED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AREAS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
FINALLY, A NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ADVANCING INLAND INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN CROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE SIERRA NEVADA, PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN, THE WASATCH OF UTAH, AND ALSO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO WHERE 6 TO 12+ INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A NEW SURGE
OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WHICH COUPLED WITH DRY AIR/LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS WHICH WILL INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ASIDE FROM THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING AREAS FARTHER
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK FOR AREAS EVEN FARTHER EAST OVER
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ORRISON
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