119
FXUS01 KWBC 020737
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EST SUN MAR 02 2025
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 02 2025 - 12Z TUE MAR 04 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES...
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST STATES WILL HAVE A COLDER AIR SETTLE
IN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETUPS OVER REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE GULF COAST. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLD
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THERE MAY BE LOCALLY A FEW
INCHES OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WHERE DAILY
HIGHS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THEN
MODERATING BY NEXT TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE SOUTH WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER A WEAK SYSTEM
EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FACILITATE A RETURN OF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AN STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY
COMES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
THERE WILL BE CONCERNS FOR GUSTY WINDS, AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. AREAS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
WEST. AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.LOCALLY HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWFALL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE SIERRA NEVADA, PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, THE WASATCH OF UTAH, AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN COLORADO WHERE 6 TO 12+ INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK BY MIDWEEK OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A NEW SURGE OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
WHICH COUPLED WITH DRY AIR/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WHICH WILL INCLUDE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY.
CAMPBELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page