751
FXUS01 KWBC 022001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2025
VALID 00Z MON MAR 03 2025 - 00Z WED MAR 05 2025
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDS GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK INCLUDING HIGH
WINDS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, SEVERE WEATHER, AND A CONCERN FOR SOME
FLASH FLOODING...
...THERE IS CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST GRADUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THEN RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
VERY STRONG LOW CENTER WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY BEFORE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA,
AND 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES EAST, A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY AS MUCH AS A FOOT POTENTIALLY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTH, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION INCLUDING
NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND MUCH OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS WILL BE SEEING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOCALLY VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR WITH
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS THIS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES EAST.
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER EXISTS ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND WILL THIS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION, THE CONCERN WILL BE
SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH, BUT A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND
POTENTIALLY MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION WHICH WILL
INCLUDE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) DENOTED
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS OF THE MIDWEST AND
DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION ON TUESDAY
AND THERE MAY BE AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS A
RESULT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
WITH SOME OF THIS ALSO OVERLAPPING THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY CHANGEABLE GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE STORM, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDWEST MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SITUATED OVER
THE WEST WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STRONG LOW CENTER.
ORRISON
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