857
FXUS01 KWBC 030749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EST MON MAR 03 2025
VALID 12Z MON MAR 03 2025 - 12Z WED MAR 05 2025
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDS GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK INCLUDING HIGH
WINDS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, SEVERE WEATHER, AND A CONCERN FOR SOME
FLASH FLOODING...
...THERE IS CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST GRADUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TUESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WILL INITIALLY INCLUDE AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12
INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA, AND 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREAT BASIN AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE COLD
SECTOR OF THIS STORM. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES, WITH
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS A FOOT, TO SET UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A COMBINATION OF THE
HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS POTENT
STORM WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL DRIVE DOWN HUMIDITY VALUES
AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR WILDFIRES. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. STRONG WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH, BUT A
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH REGION WHICH WILL INCLUDE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL AND A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) DENOTED
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITH SOME OF
THIS ALSO OVERLAPPING THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AREAS.
THIS ROBUST WINTER STORM WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE WEST WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
SPILL OUT INTO THE PLAINS AS THE STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD.
CAMPBELL/ORRISON
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