380
FXUS01 KWBC 032000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST MON MAR 03 2025
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 04 2025 - 00Z THU MAR 06 2025
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDS GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK INCLUDING DAMAGING
HIGH WINDS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, SEVERE WEATHER, AND A CONCERN FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING...
...THERE IS CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST GRADUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS...
...NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CALIFORNIA...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A VERY DEEP LOW CENTER
THEN TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH WILL
INCLUDE HEAVY SNOWFALL IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET OF NEW SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST, A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW
SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 1 FOOT OF
SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. THE VERY STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND POOR VISIBILITY.
FARTHER SOUTH ON THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE OF THIS STORM, MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION INCLUDING NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN TEXAS WILL BE SEEING THE ARRIVAL OF VERY STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER WITH LARGE
AREAS OF NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SEEING THE GREATEST WILDFIRE
THREAT. AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS AREAS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS AS LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR PERSISTS.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION, THE CONCERN WILL BE
SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE SOUTH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOW
HIGHLIGHTED AN ELEVATED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY SEVERAL TORNADOES
ALONG WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BROADEN IN SCALE AND
MAGNITUDE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER DRIVES A
STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, MID-SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGION. IN FACT, AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW DEPICTED FOR A LARGE AREA
FROM THE ARKLATEX DOWN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE CONCERNS FOR VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES, AND AT
LEAST SOME AREAS OF LARGE HAIL. ON WEDNESDAY, HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER DEPICTED HERE WHICH
WILL MAINLY BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS OF THE MIDWEST AND
DOWN INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION ON TUESDAY
AND THERE MAY BE AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS A
RESULT. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
WITH SOME OF THIS ALSO OVERLAPPING THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY CHANGEABLE GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE STORM, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDWEST MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SITUATED OVER
THE WEST WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STRONG LOW CENTER.
FINALLY, A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL RANGES. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA.
ORRISON
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