038
FXCA20 KWBC 032014
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EST MON MAR 03 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 3 MARCH 2025 AT 2015 UTC:
IN GENERAL, THROUGH MIDWEEK, THE TROPICAL REGION WILL REMAIN WITH
RAINFALL ACTIVITY NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY. THIS MEANS THAT
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE BRIEF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER HISPANIOLA, BUT NOTHING
PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS. MEXICO WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, WHILE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS WELL AS THE BAHAMAS MAY OBSERVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT ONCE AGAIN, NOTHING
PARTICULARLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL. TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL IN FACT OBSERVE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER.
THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, WITH A STATIONARY PORTION EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
CUBA BY TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST,
BUT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO BY THAT TIME, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL US AND MEXICO INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. BY WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE, LEAVING A TROUGH
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO, BUT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST, REACHING VERACRUZ AND YUCATAN,
CONTINUING NORTHEAST, JUST WEST OF CUBA AND NORTHWEST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL JUST
AHEAD OF THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, BUT BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THEM,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO
THE YUCATAN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL PAS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ITS AXIS FORECAST TO BE
OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THAT UPPER TROUGH, A
RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ENCOMPASS THE CARIBBEAN REGION INTO
MEXICO, BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY
WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY, WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
FOLLOW FROM MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY, BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE IN TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL ALLOW BRIEF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH THE DAILY MAX
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 35MM, WITH MOST AREAS
OBSERVING UNDER 15MM. THAT SAID, THE MID AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
MOISTURE, TO POSSIBLE CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
LEEWARDS ON WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, IN PARTICULAR OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS. THAT SAID, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, AS THE MOISTURE
COMBINES WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS PLUS A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR ARE FORECAST INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK, FROM A MAXIMA UP TO 45MM
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, TO A MAXIMA OF 60MM ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE REST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL HAVE ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE DAILY
MAXIMA WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 45MM.
FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND DETAILS OF THE AREAS WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
ALAMO...(WPC)
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