629
FXUS06 KWBC 032035
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON MARCH 03 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 13 2025
THE GEFS, EUROPEAN, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY’S
SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 40N/160W WITH MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 150 METERS (THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS POSITIVE
DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 210 METERS). THESE MODELS ALSO FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING (NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES MOSTLY RANGE FROM -60 TO -150
METERS) THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA EASTWARD ACROSS NEARLY ALL
OF CANADA. DISCREPANCIES AMONG MODELS ARISE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MEAN
TROUGHING GETS ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A LARGE LOBE OF ANOMALOUS TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND THE EASTERN CANADA
PORTION OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS ALSO FORECAST A WEAK ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST. IN CONTRAST, THE GEFS PREDICTS A MUCH LARGER COVERAGE OF BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WEAK ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS INDICATED. A LOOK AT DAILY
MAPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOWS THE GEFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH AN EJECTING SHORTER
WAVELENGTH TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWER 48 STATES. MAXIMUM
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 60-70 PERCENT OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS, WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS SUPPORT FROM BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW TEMPERATURE TOOLS WHICH FAVOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST EASTWARD TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND THE PREDICTED PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THIS AREA. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING
ALSO FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING, BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVELS. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE THERE IS
A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE. AT LOWER LATITUDES, RELATIVELY WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED AND ERF CON TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN THIRDS OF THE CONUS, CONNECTED BY A
NARROW BRIDGE OF FAVORED WETNESS (POSSIBLY SNOW) ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS
AND MINNESOTA. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM
70 TO 80 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO BROAD AREAS OF FAVORED
ANOMALOUS WETNESS OVER THE CONUS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE ECENS AND GEFS
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED, RAW, AND BIAS-CORRECTED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THEY ARE
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ONSHORE FLOW AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING (WEST) AND
MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF (EAST). THE RAW CMCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
DIFFERS MARKEDLY BY FORECASTING A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ENHANCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR ALASKA, THERE ARE VARIATIONS AMONG THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, BUT A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND, CONSIDERED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND
JET STREAM. FOR HAWAII, THE AUTOMATED AND ERF CON PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR
INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE ALASKA SURFACE FIELDS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 17 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR 40N/160W, BUT
THE GEFS DIFFERS IN THAT IT PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THIS FEATURE.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA (RELATIVE TO THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD) PREDICTING A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WITH A MAXIMUM
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OF AT LEAST -120 METERS DEPICTED ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND, LOCATED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF VANCOUVER ISLAND/WASHINGTON STATE. IN
ADDITION, A WEAK RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST STATES. OVER THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING WEEK-2.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 60-70 PERCENT FROM THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THIS RELATIVELY WARM AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS PRACTICALLY UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE
VARIOUS TEMPERATURE TOOLS ON THIS FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FROM NEAR THE ROCKIES WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST, UNDER A LARGE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND WELL BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
FAVORING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK-2 FEATURES
BROADER COVERAGE OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH MOST OF THE STATE FAVORED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND AND THE MAJORITY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, THOUGH SOME TOOLS FAVOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DUE TO SURROUNDING ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS WAS THE CASE DURING THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
THE FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ATTRIBUTED TO A COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY WELL BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE ANOMALOUS WETNESS OVER THE EAST IS DUE TO INCREASED INFLOW
OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF TWO SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS. EACH STORM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRAVEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM 60-70 PERCENT OVER CALIFORNIA.
AS LATE WINTER TRANSITIONS INTO EARLY SPRING, AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTORS OF THESE CYCLONIC SYSTEMS,
WITH THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED REGION BEING THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN PREDICTED
OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. OVER ALASKA, THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THAN OVER THE CONUS. A SUBJECTIVE CONSENSUS OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS RELATIVE DRYNESS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND, WITH ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE MAINLAND FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE HAWAIIAN ERF
CON AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS PREDICT A WEAK TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE ALASKA SURFACE FIELDS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980314 - 19880224 - 19700219 - 20080218 - 19630224
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980313 - 19880224 - 19630224 - 20080218 - 19940307
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 13 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 17 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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