052
FXUS01 KWBC 040737
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2025
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 04 2025 - 12Z THU MAR 06 2025
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDS GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK INCLUDING DAMAGING
HIGH WINDS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, SEVERE WEATHER, AND A CONCERN FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING...
...THERE IS CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST GRADUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS...
...NEW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CALIFORNIA...
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AS POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TREKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY, MIDWEST BY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL SETUP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN A VAST AREA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. LOCAL MAX SNOW
TOTALS MAY APPROACH 1 FOOT.
FARTHER SOUTH ON THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE OF THIS STORM, MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION INCLUDING NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN TEXAS WILL HAVE CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE VERY STRONG WINDS INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF WILDFIRES. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS REFER TO THE THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE WILL BE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH EMPHASIS FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH AND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
IDENTIFIED A BROAD ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS,
TORNADOES, AND AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS OF THE MIDWEST AND DOWN INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION TODAY AND THERE MAY BE
AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITH SOME OF THIS
ALSO OVERLAPPING THE AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.
THE RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT FOCUS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST REGION AS THE POTENT
SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD. THERE IS SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER DEPICTED HERE WHICH WILL MAINLY BE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES AND A MARGINAL RISK
FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL RANGES WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY CHANGEABLE GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE STORM, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDWEST MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SITUATED OVER
THE WEST WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STRONG LOW CENTER.
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