510
FXCA20 KWBC 041923
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 4 MARCH 2025 AT 1920 UTC:
THE TROPICAL REGION WILL REMAIN WITH RAINFALL ACTIVITY NOT TOO FAR
FROM CLIMATOLOGY. AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION AND MANY PARTS OF MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE THE
GULF COASTAL AREAS OF MEXICO ANS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF TROPICAL
SOUTH AMERICA WILL WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER.
THE GENERAL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL HAVE BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST
OF THE BAHAMAS, THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, THOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. MEXICO WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO OBSERVING
ISOLATED SHOWERS. TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL OBSERVE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A THING TO NOTE IS THAT A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY
CAUSE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN AMAZONAS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND THE VENTILATION ALOFT, THIS RAINFALL PATTERN
SHOULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC, SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY,
LEAVING A TROUGH IN ITS PLACE. THAT SAID, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT, MAKING IT A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN USA, SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO EASTERN
MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY, COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO WESTERN CUBA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC, EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN CUBA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA BY TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN A WEAK TROUGH COULD BE OVER HISPANIOLA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE A AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER MEXICO.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SIMILAR PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MID
LEVELS, WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ANTILLES THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA DOESN'T SEEM TO BE REFLECTED
IN THE MID LEVELS, BUT THERE IS DIFFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN STARING
TONIGHT, EXTENDING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS GENERAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW BRIEF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA, WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DAILY MAX RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 35MM, WITH MOST AREAS OBSERVING UNDER
15MM. THE DRIEST DAY OVER THE REGIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WESTERN COLOMBIA ANS WESTERN ECUADOR LOOK PARTICULARLY
RAINY, BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE OVER
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA INTO SOUTHERN AMAZONAS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS PLUS A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR ARE FORECAST A DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA
UP TO 60MM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT UP TO 35MM
IS FORECAST FOR WESTERN ECUADOR ON THURSDAY, WHILE WESTERN
COLOMBIA STILL EXPECTED UP TO 60MM ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, COULD CAUSE A PERSISTENT LINE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA INTO SOUTHERN AMAZONAS, LEAVING AS MUCH AS 40-80MM OF
RAIN OVER ISOLATED AREAS. THE REST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL
HAVE ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT THE DAILY MAXIMA
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 45MM, THURSDAY BEING THE DAY WITH MOST
COVERAGE IN THE UPPER END OF THAT FORECAST RANGE.
FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND DETAILS OF THE AREAS WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
ALAMO...(WPC)
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