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FXUS06 KWBC 042002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE MARCH 04 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2025
THE GEFS, EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (ECENS), AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (CMCE)
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH YESTERDAY’S SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS PREDICT A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 40N/160W WITH MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF ABOUT 150 METERS. THESE MODELS ALSO FORECAST ANOMALOUS TROUGHING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA EASTWARD ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
CANADA AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). THE ECENS PREDICTS THE STRONGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A MAGNITUDE OF ABOUT -180 METERS.
THE EASTERN CANADA PORTION OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DIP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST. OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST
AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 80-90 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
LARGE-SCALE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY ALL TEMPERATURE TOOLS
AND THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING ALSO
FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MAINLAND AND THE
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE FORECAST OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS, AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS. MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA, WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
CREST OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE. AT LOWER LATITUDES, RELATIVELY WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED AND ERF CON TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 70 TO
80 PERCENT OVER CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF NEIGHBORING STATES. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM
OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS DEPICTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 40
PERCENT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUPPORT THIS LARGE-SCALE ANOMALOUS
WETNESS. THE FORECAST IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ONSHORE FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING (WEST) AND MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF (EAST). BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. FOR ALASKA, THERE ARE VARIATIONS AMONG THE
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, BUT A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND, CONSIDERED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND
JET STREAM. FOR HAWAII, THE AUTOMATED AND ERF CON PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR
INCREASED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE ALASKA SURFACE FIELDS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
MAIN LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FEATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST BY THE ECENS AND CMCE TO BE CENTERED
NEAR 40N/160W, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. THE 6Z GEFS PREDICTS GRADUAL
RETROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE TOWARD THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS IN THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER ALASKA, WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA, AND MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THE GEFS AND ECENS PREDICT A MAXIMUM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
OF ABOUT -120 METERS, LOCATED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND/WASHINGTON STATE. IN ADDITION, A WEAK RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST STATES. OVER
THE VICINITY OF HAWAII, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING WEEK-2.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 60-70 PERCENT OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THIS
RELATIVELY WARM AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THERE IS PRACTICALLY UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS
TEMPERATURE TOOLS ON THIS FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST, UNDER A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WELL BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 70-80 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK-2 FEATURES BROADER
COVERAGE OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH MOST OF THE STATE FAVORED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND AND THE MAJORITY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, THOUGH SOME TOOLS FAVOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO SURROUNDING
ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS WAS THE CASE DURING THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
THE FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST IS ATTRIBUTED TO A
COMBINATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A FAIRLY DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH ACCOMPANIED
BY WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE ANOMALOUS WETNESS OVER THE EAST IS DUE TO
INCREASED INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF TWO SEPARATE STORM
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, AND THE SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND TRAVEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA MERITS EXTRA SCRUTINY AS
BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE A POTENTIALLY POWERFUL EARLY SPRING STORM
SYSTEM THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH
(CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY), SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE EVENTUAL STORM
TRACK, AND STRONG WINDS. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN, BUT WILL BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. IN THE WEST, MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM 60-70 PERCENT OVER CALIFORNIA. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WELL REMOVED FROM
THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK AND JET STREAM. THIS PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FORECASTED OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND
CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. OVER ALASKA, THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THAN OVER THE CONUS. A SUBJECTIVE
CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
RELATIVE DRYNESS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, WHICH COMPRISES THE MAJORITY OF
THE STATE, IS FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE HAWAIIAN ERF CON
AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS PREDICT A WEAK TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE ALASKA SURFACE FIELDS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980315 - 19630225 - 19700221 - 19880224 - 20080218
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980314 - 19630225 - 19700221 - 20080218 - 19940309
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 18 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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