694
FXUS01 KWBC 042003
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAR 05 2025 - 00Z FRI MAR 07 2025
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS, SEVERE WEATHER, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...
...THERE IS CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEST GRADUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS...
...PACIFIC STORM SET TO BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY
TONIGHT, AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM, A LARGE SWATH OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES FROM PARTS OF IOWA TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO VERY STRONG WINDS, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO A
VAST AREA OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WHITEOUTS AND LIFE THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS, BLIZZARD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA, KANSAS,
MISSOURI, IOWA, AND MINNESOTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH ON THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE OF THIS STORM, MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION INCLUDING NEW MEXICO, SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN TEXAS WILL HAVE CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE VERY STRONG WINDS INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS, REFER TO THE THE FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. ON THE WARM AND MOIST SIDE OF THE STORM TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD.
COMBINED WITH THE FORCING FROM A STRONG COLD FRONT, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR THESE AREAS GIVEN THE MAIN THREATS OF VERY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES, AND
AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN FOR AREAS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT.
GIVEN THE ABOVE, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS.
THE FOCUS AND RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE POTENT SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD. A
BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS MAINTAINED
BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FROM PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DEPICTED A NEW ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FROM SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA TO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND EVEN A COUPLE
TORNADOES. FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO LESS OF A CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING, BUT LOCALIZED ISSUES STEMMING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAN STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAVORED PEAKS IN THE SIERRAS AND ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY CHANGEABLE GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE STORM, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDWEST MOVING EAST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THESE AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SITUATED OVER
THE WEST WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
STRONG LOW CENTER.
MILLER/CAMPBELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page