059
FXUS01 KWBC 052000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST WED MAR 05 2025
VALID 00Z THU MAR 06 2025 - 00Z SAT MAR 08 2025
...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...
...THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM SOUTHERN DELMARVA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...
...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RAMP UP AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A PLETHORA OF HAZARDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM PORTIONS
OF IOWA TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW
COMBINED WITH 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE WHITEOUTS AND
NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES, LEADING TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES OUT AND WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH IS WHERE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES.
OVERALL, DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS,
BUT A FEW TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER. GIVEN THE OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME, BUT SOME AREAS MAY GET 1 TO LOCALLY 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE DRIER WEATHER COMMENCES BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE
WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL, 10 TO 20 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW WILL PILE UP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS OF 2 FEET OR MORE REMAIN POSSIBLE TOO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NORTH OF THIS LOW, A NARROW
BAND OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
LIKELY TO BRING A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY, VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP THE FIRE DANGER
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20
PERCENT (AND IN SOME PLACES BELOW 10 PERCENT) COMBINED WITH DRY
FUELS AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL.
MILLER/HAMRICK
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