496
FXUS06 KWBC 062002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU MARCH 06 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2025
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ON THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHILE THE GEFS MODEL PREDICTS A
SIMILAR POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FURTHER WEST OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
CANADA. ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF
ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE IN SOME MODEL PREDICTIONS, MOST OF CANADA,
AND THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). A RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO PARTS OF QUEBEC.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
WHERE THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK AND PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS INDICATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF A PREDICTED
STORM SYSTEM AND SNOW COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, UNDER PRIMARILY ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, IN PART
DUE TO POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL FORECASTS. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS, A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
AND MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
MOST ISLANDS OF HAWAII, EXCLUDING ONLY THE BIG ISLAND, PARTLY DUE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS AND
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2025
DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEEK-2
CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE CENTER OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA EXTENDING
ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND THE CONUS, EXCLUDING ONLY THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
REGIONS, WHERE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS. UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SO LOWER PROBABILITIES
ARE SHOWN IN THE OUTLOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR HAWAII
IN WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS AND SURFACE TOOLS FOR
MOST AREAS, OFFSET BY SOME AREAS OF DIFFERENCES SUCH AS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19780310 - 19530220 - 20000217 - 20080306 - 20000317
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530220 - 20000216 - 20030221 - 20080305 - 20000317
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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