431
FXCA20 KWBC 071727
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1226 PM EST FRI MAR 07 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 7 MARCH 2025 AT 1730 UTC:
THE TROPICAL FORECAST REGION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY A BETTER
ORGANIZED DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO)
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IS EXITING THE EASTERN MOST
REGION OF PHASE 1, WHICH IS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REGION. THE MJO IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE AND A
SECOND PULSE OF A KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY SUNDAY. THE MJO IS
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
FROM THE MJO AND KELVIN WAVES, EXPECT ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE REGIONS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CONVECTION.
..MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER MOST
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA, FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
INTERACTING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND FAVORING THE
ENHANCEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS/LOUISIANA
AND INTO TAMAULIPAS AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. TO THE
EAST, A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS INTO HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY EVENING, FAVORING LOCALIZED
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A PERTURBATION LIKE A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO/VI WHICH WILL FAVOR SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
EAST AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/VI. MOIST TROUGHS IN THE TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THEY WOULD
ACTIVATE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. SIMILARLY, MOIST PLUMES ARE EXPECTED
TO ENTER FROM EAST HONDURAS TO PANAMA, WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY, THE MAIN FEATURE THAT REMAINS IS THE
STRENGTHENED COLD FRONT TRAVELING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO TABASCO AND VERACRUZ-MEXICO WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MODERATE PRECIPITATIONS ON SUNDAY. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTEND INTO
CENTRAL GUATEMALA BY SUNDAY EVENING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM PUERTO RICO TO ST.
KITTS AND NEVIS WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION. ON SATURDAY, GENERALIZED MAXIMA BELOW
15MM ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, FROM OAXACA THROUGH
SOUTH GUATEMALA, AND FROM EAST HONDURAS TO WEST PANAMA. ON SUNDAY,
AS THE MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTH
CHIAPAS/SOUTH VERACRUZ/EAST OAXACA. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED
FROM CENTRAL CHIAPAS TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. SOUTHERN VERACRUZ CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM AND TABASCO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN HONDURAS.
..TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
THE TROPICAL REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SEEING MOIST AND DEEPLY CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADES AND THE ITCZ/NET A SERIES
OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
DIVERGENT CONDITIONS FROM THE MJO, WHICH WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION. OUT OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WETTEST WITH WIDESPREAD AND SCATTERED HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH IN PARA-BRASIL WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. SIMILARLY, ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH COLOMBIA, NORTH PERU, AND WEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL WHERE THE INTERACTION WITH THE NET WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
IN CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL. WHILE OTHER REGIONS OF NORTH BRASIL
AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA AN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM WEST PARA TO AMAZONAS-BRASIL. THE
WESTERN AMAZON BASIN AND THE AMAZON DELTA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON SUNDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN THE EASTERN AMAZON
BASIN, WHILE THE REST OF THE AMAZON BASIN, INTO RORAIMA AND
CANAIMA EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM, WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE CHOCO REGION IN
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HAVE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.
FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND DETAILS OF THE AREAS WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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