407
FXUS06 KWBC 072002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI MARCH 07 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 17 2025
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ON THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, WHILE THE GEFS MODEL PREDICTS A
SIMILAR POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FURTHER WEST OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
CANADA. ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO
PARTS OF QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, UNDER PRIMARILY ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, IN PART
DUE TO POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER ANOMALOUS EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS, A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
AND MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, PARTLY DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 21 2025
DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEEK-2
CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE CENTER OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE
MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF ALASKA EXTENDING ACROSS
MOST OF CANADA AND THE CENTRAL CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. IN THE WEST, HEIGHTS ARE
BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST BY
THE END OF WEEK-2.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A TROUGH AND
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS.
UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, SO LOWER PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWN IN THE OUTLOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHERE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ACROSS THE WEST RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDLE TO END
OF WEEK-2, REDUCING ONSHORE FLOW. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN FORECAST
ACROSS THE EAST AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS AGAIN FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
ISLANDS OF HAWAII, EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AND A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530217 - 19530222 - 19930225 - 19780310 - 19880302
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530218 - 19530223 - 19770227 - 20030221 - 19780311
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 17 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 15 - 21 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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