411
FXUS01 KWBC 110735
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 11 2025 - 12Z THU MAR 13 2025
..RENEWED WARMTH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
..STORM SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND ENTRENCHED DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA TONIGHT THANKS TO THIS SHORTWAVE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, A DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LEADING TO RENEWED MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S WILL REPRESENT 20-40
DEGREE ANOMALIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BENEATH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
A DEEPER, SLOWER UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT ENTERS THE WEST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL AND MOIST
PACIFIC AIRMASS INTO THE WEST. HEAVY SNOW RATES, STRONG WINDS
GUSTING TO 40-70 MPH AND SNOW LEVELS BELOW MANY MAJOR PASSES WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING 1-3
FEET OR MORE ALONG WITH THE HIGH WINDS COULD CAUSE SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.5"/HR ARE LIKELY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY -- WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, INCLUDING SHALLOW DEBRIS FLOWS ACROSS
SENSITIVE BURN SCARS OR ISOLATED ROCKSLIDES, AS WELL AS HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL DUE TO PONDING OF WATER AND SLICK ROADS.
KEBEDE
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page