567   
FXCA20 KWBC 111702  
PMDCA   
  
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
101 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025  
  
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 MARCH 2025 AT 1710 UTC:  
   
..MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA  
  
ON TUESDAY, A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED IN  
NORTHERN MEXICO, WHERE A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
ENTER NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND  
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS ENTERING THE REGION AND  
WEAKENING OVER NORTHWEST SONORA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BE PROGRESSING FAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED  
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTH HONDURAS, A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTH CARIBBEAN WILL FAVOR  
MOIST CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS IT ENTERS THE REGION AND INTERACTS  
WITH THE TERRAIN. ON WEDNESDAY, THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY A MID  
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND OVER  
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WEST CARIBBEAN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REGION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE  
REMAINS LOW. BY THURSDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO  
NORTHWEST MEXICO BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH THE  
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION IN NORTH BAJA  
CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN AND HAS  
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE DIVERGENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER  
SOUTH CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE  
MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. LIMITED TOTALS OF ISOLATED PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON TUESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA  
OF 20-40MM IN NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTH HONDURAS. ON  
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM IN EL SALVADOR AND DRY CONDITIONS  
IN THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. ON THURSDAY, WITH THE  
NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH A CHANCE OF  
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN SOUTH  
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTH SONORA. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION AND IN SOUTH COSTA RICA.  
   
..CARIBBEAN BASIN  
  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST AND THE EAST  
CARIBBEAN SEA, FAVORING THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT  
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO SOUTH BAHAMAS, EAST CUBA  
AND WEAKENING OVER SOUTH CUBA. ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER  
THE NORTH CARIBBEAN, THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LOW AND  
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. AS  
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD, SO DOES THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES A WEAK  
STATIONARY FRONT OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY  
EVENING. A WEAK PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE FRONT,  
WHERE IT IS LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE  
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF  
15-25MM IN EAST CUBA AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN SOUTH BAHAMAS, NORTH  
HISPANIOLA, AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT  
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN  
SOUTH HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF  
20-35MM IN HISPANIOLA, MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN PUERTO RICO AND EAST  
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL  
LESSER ANTILLES.  
   
..TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA  
  
LOW LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER TROPICAL SOUTH  
AMERICA AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS  
WILL ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AMAZON RIVER BASIN, WHERE  
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  
SOME LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE PROPAGATING NORTHWARD INTO THE  
GUIANAS BY THURSDAY EVENING, WHERE HEAVY PRECIPTIATION IS  
EXPECTED. TO THE WEST, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENTER THE WESTERN  
COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE AND THE DIRECTION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR  
HEAVY PRECIPITATIONS, EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM  
THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. IN TERMS OF  
PRECIPITATION, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SOUTH VENEZUELA TO  
EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND WEST PARA. MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ARE EXPECTED  
IN WEST COLOMBIA AND NORTH SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA. THE WEST AMAZON  
BASIN CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON WEDNESDAY, MAXIMA OF  
25-50MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN AMAZON BASIN AND IN THE SOUTH  
GUIANAS, WHILE THE NORTH GUIANAS ARE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.  
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED IN ECUADOR AND NORTH PERU, WHILE  
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN WEST COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY,  
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM SOUTH VENEZUELA TO AMAZONAS-BRASIL,  
WHILE A MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST VENEZUELA TO  
NORTH GUYANA WITH A MOIST TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION. MAXIMA OF  
20-40MM ARE EXPECTED FROM EAST VENEZUELA TO NORTH PARA, WHILE  
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN WEST ECUADOR AND NORTH AMAPA.  
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST COLOMBIA.  
  
FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND DETAILS OF THE AREAS WITH  
FORECAST RAINFALL:  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML  
  
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)  
  
  
 
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