170
FXUS01 KWBC 112003
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAR 12 2025 - 00Z FRI MAR 14 2025
..STORM SYSTEMS BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...
..WARMTH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR
SOME ISOLATED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SENSITIVE AREAS OF
TERRAIN AND URBAN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AS A QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD FALL IN ANY LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETS UP AHEAD OF A STRONG
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE RAINFALL RATES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER A FEW HOURS DESPITE THE
SYSTEM BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. MOST OF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY, AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS A TARGETED SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF
TERRAIN FOR LOS ANGELES, SANTA BARBARA, AND VENTURA COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGH WINDS AND
WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS OF HIGH ELEVATION. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER KEY MESSAGE IS HIGHLIGHTING HAZARDOUS
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-70 MPH WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TERRAIN.
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVER MUCH OF THIS
REGION, AND THE THREAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS HEAVY SNOW FALLS
ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER-LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH RETURNING MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX
REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING IN THE FORM
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS. THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
WITH SIMILAR THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT AT A MARGINAL
RISK LEVEL.
THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALSO FEATURES A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST U.S. GUSTY WINDS, NEARING
40 MPH, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES. BE CAUTIOUS WHEN OPERATING WITH FIRE AND
LISTEN TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES ON BURN NOTICE GUIDELINES.
LASTLY,ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG STORYLINE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF WARM
AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. 70S AND 80S WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS TO
FLORIDA. ON THURSDAY, SOME STATIONS COULD PASS DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IN TEXAS. BY FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE SETTING
UP NEAR THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL GENERALLY SEPARATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM
THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 20S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH LOCALLY COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE.
WILDER
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