693
FXCA20 KWBC 121901
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 MARCH 2025 AT 1900 UTC:
..MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STATIONED OVER
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION
AND FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ARE OF INTEREST IS NORTHWEST MEXICO, WHERE A
SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE REACHING NORTH SUR BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
PROPAGATING QUICKLY OVER NORTH MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED WEST OF THE
REGION AND IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED OVER WEST SONORA AND INTO NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSING, EXPECT INCREASED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THE TERRAIN FAVORING LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION IN NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO WEST SONORA. BY
FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
INTO TEXAS AND EXTEND INTO COAHUILA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
PASSAGE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVELS, WHERE TWO UPPER
LEVEL JETS ARE ENHANCING THE LOWERING OF PRESSURES IN THE REGION
AS IT PROPAGATES RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. TO THE WEST, A NEW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS EXTREME NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FAVORS
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY,
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
TO REMAIN DRY. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN NORTH SONORA. ON FRIDAY, MAXIMA
OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA REMAIN DRY.
..CARIBBEAN BASIN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE EAST CARIBBEAN IS QUICKLY
PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND FAVORING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA, WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY, AND EXTENDS ALONG SOUTHERN CUBA. JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, MOIST PLUMES PROPAGATING ALONG THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES PROPAGATING EAST,
WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS BY FRIDAY, FAVORING THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY
AND OVER PUERTO RICO/VI ON FRIDAY, THESE TWO LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN HISPANIOLA,
WHILE PUERTO RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT
PUERTO RICO/VI TO SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
...TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA..
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA, INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS TO ITS NORTH AND ENHANCING THE AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE OVER
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL HAVE AN AXIS EXTEND OVER VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS,
INTERACTING WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OVER COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR,
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRIES, AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ENTERS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
THE TERRAIN IN A LESS FAVORABLE ANGLE SO PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE GUIANAS AND
THE AMAZON RIVER BASIN, EXPECT TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS TO PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION, BRINGING MOIST
CONDITIONS AND FAVORED BY THE UPPER LEVELS, ENHANCED CONVECTION.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SOUTH
VENEZUELA, TO RORAIMA-BRASIL, AND SOUTH GUYANA. CENTRAL COLOMBIA,
WEST ECUADOR, THE NORTH GUIANAS, AND FROM EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL TO
AMAPA EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY, EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WEST ECUADOR AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE
CHOCO REGION OF COLOMBIA, ORINOCO DELTA, AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL.
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA,
NORTH PERU, THE GUIANAS, AMAPA, AND THE EASTERN AMAZON BASIN. ON
FRIDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN, AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM EAST COLOMBIA, SOUTH VENEZUELA, INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED IN AMAPA, FRENCH
GUIANA, AND SURINAME, AS WELL AS FROM SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA INTO
NORTHWEST ECUADOR.
FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND DETAILS OF THE AREAS WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
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