884
FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 12 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 22 2025
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TRANSIENT RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE GEFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
FEATURE COMPARED TO THE ECENS AND CMCE. PERSISTENT TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO REACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THE GEFS INDICATES A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST AROUND DAY-10, THE ECENS IS WEAKER, AND
THE 0Z CMCE DEPICTS MORE RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST FURTHER ADDING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ACROSS ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ASSOCIATED WITH A +150 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15-20 DEG F
ABOVE-NORMAL IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY
AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. TROUGHING PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEST FAVORS
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST, INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FAVORS A TILT
TOWARD ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS.
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH STRONGER NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TIED TO TROUGHING FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE HIGHLIGHTED. AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT TO THE ROCKIES.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PRECEDING SYSTEM IN
WEEK-1, CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN
PLAINS, COASTAL SOUTHEAST, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAR ENOUGH DISPLACED FROM THE SYSTEM. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS
AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 26 2025
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE DEPICT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE 0Z GEFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMPARED TO THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE, BUT ALL MODELS
DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH
RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE TROUGHING OVER ALASKA, WITH THE 0Z GEFS AND CMCE
DEPICTING NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPANDING OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
CONTINUING ACROSS ALASKA TIED TO STRONGER TROUGHING EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION TRANSLATES TO THE
SURFACE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHERE THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
PERSISTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEPICTED IN THE ECENS REFOREAST TOOL. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WEST IN TODAY’S FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY AND SUPPORTED BY THE COLDER
UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED BELOW 50 PERCENT.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, CLOSE TO THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. WHILE TRANSIENT COOLING EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
WEEK-2, MJO PROPAGATION ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN SUPPORTS WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST LATER IN WEEK-2 AND INTO WEEK-3. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
ARE INCREASED FOR MOST OF EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION
TOOL.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING. THE BEST AGREEMENT IS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THE ECENS AND CMCE ARE NOTABLY DRIER ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THE GEFS DUE TO THE MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE, WITH THE
DISCREPANCY FAVORING A NEAR-NORMAL FORECAST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN WEEK-2, TIED TO SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND DUE
TO A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND DECREASING AMPLIFICATION.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070220 - 19560225 - 19560303 - 19800311 - 19540308
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19560301 - 19760220 - 19800313 - 20070219 - 19560225
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 18 - 22 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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