365
FXUS01 KWBC 130716
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
VALID 12Z THU MAR 13 2025 - 12Z SAT MAR 15 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK PROBABLE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PARTS OF OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...
..STORM SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
..WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW, HEAVY RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. HEAVY SNOW AND POWERFUL WIND GUSTS
OF 40-70 MPH BELOW MANY MAJOR PASSES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS TO
POTENTIALLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2+
FEET OF SNOW WHICH, ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS, COULD CAUSE SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW
ABOVE 5000 FEET AND STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IN THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES TODAY AND
FRIDAY. RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HIGH WINDS WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO
LOW VISIBILITY. A WINTRY MIX IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM THAT BRINGS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED
A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY, FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS, WHERE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS (SOME GREATER THAN 65
KTS), SEVERAL TORNADOES (SOME STRONG) AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SPRAWLING AND
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL WARM, DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT. RED FLAG WARNINGS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF THE EMERGING
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REPRESENT
20-40 DEGREE DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S
OVER TEXAS WILL REPRESENT 20-30 DEGREE ANOMALIES. THIS WARM AIR
PUSHES INTO THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST BENEATH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK.
KEBEDE
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