420
FXCA20 KWBC 131631
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1231 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 13 MARCH 2025 AT 1630 UTC:
..CARIBBEAN BASIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
FAST PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGHS THAT WILL FAVOR THE PRESENCE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND REMAIN STATIONARY. THE CURRENT
NEGATIVE PHASE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) IS POTENTIALLY
ASSISTING WITH THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS FAR SOUTH AS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO DURING THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONDITIONS OF THE NEGATIVE NAO PHASE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD BEGIN
CHANGING UNTIL THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
HAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY, AFFECTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
OVER PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND
AND THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TOWARDS THE
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CARIBBEAN, WEAKENING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THUS DECREASING
PRECIPITATION. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL SEE THE
PRESENCE OF MOIST PLUMES THAT ARE PROPAGATING IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON THURSDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, WHILE SOUTH HAITI, JAMAICA,
AND PUERTO RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON FRIDAY, PUERTO
RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM, WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTH HAITI, JAMAICA, AND THE SOUTH
WINDWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
SATURDAY, PUERTO RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM, WHILE
JAMAICA, SOUTH HISPANIOLA, AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM.
..MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS GOVERNED BY A POTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWEST MEXICO, WHERE A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY EVENING. FAVORING MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION, ENHANCING LIFT DUE TO THE TERRAIN,
AND FAVORING MODERATE TOTALS OF 20-40MM IN NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA,
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN SOUTH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTH SONORA ON
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES INTO NORTH SONORA, EXITING INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN THROUGH
NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS QUICKLY PROGRESSED TROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND ENTERS
EAST COAHUILA. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS LOW. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA/LOUISIANA-UNITED STATES AND ENTERS
NORTH VERACRUZ AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED IN VERACRUZ. TO THE SOUTH IN CENTRAL AMERICA, AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN REGIONS
SUCH AS THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION AND ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
REGION OF COSTA RICA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS AND
SOME MOISTURE. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AND MAXIMA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15MM/DAY.
..TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
THE INTENSIFYING BOLIVIAN HIGH IN CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL BEGIN
TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH OTHER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA FAVORING AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA. THESE INTERACTIONS WILL
PROVIDE THE VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE PROPAGATING OVER THE AMAZON RIVER BASIN OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND REACH THE NORTHERN ANDES MOUNTAINS IN COLOMBIA AND PERU
BY SATURDAY. IN WEST COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, FAVORING
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DUE TO THE DIFFLUENCE PRESENT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE ANTICIPATED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON THURSDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
WESTERN ECUADOR, AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WEST COLOMBIA,
AMAZONAS-BRASIL, AND FROM NORTH GUYANA INTO EAST VENEZUELA. MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM THE AMAZON DELTA INTO THE EASTERN
AMAZON BASIN, AND A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM NORTH PERU INTO EAST
ECUADOR. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA INTO EAST ECUADOR, AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SOUTH
VENEZUELA INTO THE CENTRAL AMAZON RIVER BASIN. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
ARE EXPECTED FROM SURINAME TO AMAPA-BRASIL, AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ARE EXPECTED IN WEST COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, AND FROM SOUTH COLOMBIA
INTO NORTH PERU. ON SATURDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM
CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO NORTH PERU AND EAST ECUADOR. MAXIMA OF
30-60MM ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTH VENEZUELA TO THE CENTRAL AMAZON
BASIN, WHILE WEST COLOMBIA INTO NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THE AMAZON DELTA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
WHILE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM CANAIMA-VENEZUELA INTO
EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL.
FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION AND DETAILS OF THE AREAS WITH
FORECAST RAINFALL:
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