629
FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 13 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2025
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TRANSIENT RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE, BUT THE ECENS AND CMCE HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. PERSISTENT TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE GEFS INDICATES A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
PERSISTING OVER THE WEST, THE ECENS AND CMCE ARE QUICKER TO BUILD MORE RIDGING
NEAR THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NEAR
THE EAST AND GULF COASTS.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ASSOCIATED WITH A +150 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 20 DEG F
ABOVE-NORMAL IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY
AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. TROUGHING
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEST FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST,
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW FAVORS A TILT TOWARD ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND
ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED
OVER WESTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH STRONGER NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TIED TO TROUGHING AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE
HIGHLIGHTED. A TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD
AND BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. MULTIPLE AREAS OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST (THE FIRST AROUND THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD AND ANOTHER LOW AROUND DAYS 9-10) FAVOR ENHANCED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, NORTHERN PLAINS, EXTREME COASTAL SOUTHEAST, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE FAR ENOUGH DISPLACED FROM THE SYSTEM. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2025
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FROM THE 0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE DEPICT THE
TROUGH DISCUSSED AT THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE ARE WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 0Z GEFS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THE ECENS, AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THE CMCE, BUILD MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGING
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE GEFS HANGS
BACK MORE TROUGHING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH, THE GEFS DEPICTS MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH A QUICKER EROSION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE EAST IN THE ECENS AND CMCE AS THE TROUGH IS FASTER TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CONUS. ALL OF THE MODELS DEPICT A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE TROUGHING OVER ALASKA,
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXPANDING OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 DEPICTS NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUING ACROSS
ALASKA TIED TO THE PREDICTED PATTERN TRANSITION. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE CONUS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED
OVER THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION TRANSLATES TO THE
SURFACE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHERE THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
PERSISTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEPICTED IN THE ECENS REFOREAST TOOL. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ELEVATED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST IN TODAY’S FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY
AND SUPPORTED BY THE COLDER UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE TRANSIENT COOLING EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN WEEK-2, MJO
PROPAGATION ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN SUPPORTS WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST
LATER IN WEEK-2 AND INTO WEEK-3. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED
FOR MOST OF EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR
HAWAII IN WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING. THE BEST AGREEMENT IS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN WEEK-2, TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO STRONG SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND DUE TO A
TRANSITION TO MORE RIDGING BY THE END OF WEEK-2. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND DECREASING AMPLIFICATION.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19560226 - 19820313 - 19550310 - 19800312 - 19770322
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19560225 - 19560302 - 19820312 - 19740307 - 19800313
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 23 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 21 - 27 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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