849
FXUS01 KWBC 131959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 14 2025 - 00Z SUN MAR 16 2025
...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY; SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
LIKELY IN THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY...
..STORM SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
..WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE WEST TODAY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A PLETHORA OF WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THROUGH
TONIGHT, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES AND AS FAR WEST AS THE SIERRA NEVADA. OVER
A FOOT OF SNOWFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE WIND GUSTS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST RANGE BETWEEN 40-70 MPH. THE STORM SYSTEM THEN REACHES
THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE VALUES
DEEPENING TO NEAR-RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THE WEATHER HAZARD WITH
THE BIGGEST FOOTPRINT OF IMPACTS IS THE WIND FIELD. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ARE FORECAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS TO
AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT, A WINTRY MIX
TRANSITIONING TO PERIODS OF SNOW WILL ENVELOPE OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT RESULT
IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS STORM, SEVERAL MORE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) FOR THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
(TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL) ON THE TABLE. IN FACT, THE
SLIGHT RISK AREAS (LEVEL 2/5) STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BY SATURDAY,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HEADS EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH
TO THE GULF COAST. SPC HAS YET ANOTHER MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5)
IN THE HEART OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA (LEVEL 2/5)
THAT REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS OHIO'S NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LAKE
ERIE. INTENSE STORMS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE FAST MOVERS, MAKING IT ESSENTIAL TO HAVE
A RELIABLE MEANS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS WHEN ISSUED AND TO NOT WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR THE SIGNS OF A SEVERE STORM. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS ON
SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR THESE REGIONS ON
SATURDAY. PLUS, SPC HAS AN EXPANSIVE CRITICAL RISK FOR THEIR FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOK ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN
EXTREME RISK LOCATED FROM NORTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE A STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST
FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST COAST. WITH TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING
OVER THE WEST INTO SATURDAY (MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY), TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER
THAN NORMAL FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A STRONG SPRING-LIKE SURGE OF WARMTH
WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST IN THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPS. AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH TEXAS, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MORE
SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. SPRING-LIKE
WARMTH WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON SATURDAY
WITH NUMEROUS RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HIGHS
ANYWHERE FROM 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MULLINAX
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