924
FXUS01 KWBC 132006
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 14 2025 - 00Z SUN MAR 16 2025
...DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY; SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
LIKELY IN THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY...
..STORM SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...
..WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE WEST TODAY WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A PLETHORA OF WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THROUGH
TONIGHT, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES AND AS FAR WEST AS THE SIERRA NEVADA. OVER
A FOOT OF SNOWFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE PEAK WIND GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST RANGE BETWEEN 40-70 MPH. THE STORM SYSTEM THEN
REACHES THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE VALUES
DEEPENING TO NEAR-RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THE WEATHER HAZARD WITH
THE BIGGEST FOOTPRINT OF IMPACTS IS THE WIND FIELD. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 50 MPH ARE FORECAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS TO
AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT, A WINTRY MIX
TRANSITIONING TO PERIODS OF SNOW WILL ENVELOPE THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT RESULT IN
DANGEROUS TRAVEL.
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS STORM, SEVERAL MORE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) FOR THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
(TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL) ON THE TABLE. IN FACT, THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA (LEVEL 2/5) STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BY SATURDAY,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HEADS EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SOUTH
TO THE GULF COAST. SPC HAS YET ANOTHER MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5)
IN THE HEART OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH A SLIGHT RISK AREA (LEVEL 2/5)
THAT REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS OHIO'S NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LAKE
ERIE. INTENSE STORMS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE
HAIL. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE FAST MOVERS, MAKING IT ESSENTIAL
TO TAKE ACTION WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AND TO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR
HEAR THE SIGNS OF A SEVERE STORM. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS ON SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR THESE REGIONS ON
SATURDAY. PLUS, SPC HAS AN EXPANSIVE CRITICAL RISK FOR THEIR FIRE
WEATHER OUTLOOK ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN
EXTREME RISK LOCATED FROM NORTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO PRODUCE A STRONG TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST COAST. WITH TROUGHING ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST INTO SATURDAY (MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY), TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A STRONG SPRING-LIKE
SURGE OF WARMTH WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. HIGH
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPS. AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH TEXAS, DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WILL BE COMMON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ON SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MULLINAX
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