782
FXUS02 KWBC 140700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2025
VALID 12Z MON MAR 17 2025 - 12Z FRI MAR 21 2025
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVERALL SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH
THE MAIN SYSTEMS AND MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION IN ACTIVE
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, NUMEROUS LINGERING SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
SEEMS TO FAVOR PREFERENCE FOR A COMPOSITE GUIDANCE FORECAST PLAN,
LEANING SOMEWHAT MORE ON THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DETAILS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SWITCHING MIDWEEK TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS ALSO
SEEMS GENERALLY IN LINW WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC
CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND LEAD/WAVY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
EAST COAST BY MONDAY TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND SWEEP WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUT TO SEA; WITH POSSIBLE LOW DEEPENING OUT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A POSSIBLE MARITIME HAZARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM BACK UP IN THE CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN U.S. AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS OCCURS WITH ADVENT OF UPPER RIDGING AS A
NEXT MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AND ONWARD TO THE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK.
DYAMICALLY AND TERRAIN ENHANCED RAIN AND ELEVATION FOCUSING SNOW IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD OUT FROM THE WEST COAST TO THROUGH THE INTERIOR
WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
SUBSEQUENT MAIN/WINDY LOW TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
INTO THURSDAY WILL COMBINE WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL COOLING TO
ENHANCE UPSLOPE AND WRAPBACK PLOWABLE SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. A WAVY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE THAN
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, BUT WILL ALIGN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THEN THE EAST, EXITING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AS NEW PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGIES AND LATE WINTER PRECIPITATION WORK
BACK INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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