731
FXUS01 KWBC 140805
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
404 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2025
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 14 2025 - 12Z SUN MAR 16 2025
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, THE
CASCADES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF F2- EF5 TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS ALSO AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER
THE REGION.
ON SATURDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF F2- EF5 TORNADOES, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS 65
KNOTS OR GREATER, AND HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL ALSO FALL OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND INLAND TO THE ROCKIES BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE COASTAL RAIN
AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SATURDAY. THE ENERGY WILL ALSO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHWEST, AND THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, MORE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW
OVER THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, ACCOMPANIED
BY COASTAL RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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