699
FXUS06 KWBC 141901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 14 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 24 2025
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST DEPICT A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THESE TOOLS FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GEFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH ENHANCED NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, RATHER THAN THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OF THE ECENS AND CANADIAN. THIS LEADS TO AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST ACROSS
THE WEST. IN ALASKA, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE WITH THE MID-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. IN HAWAII,
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE MID-LEVEL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST.
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ASSOCIATED WITH A +120 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 DEG F
ABOVE-NORMAL IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY
AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. TROUGHING
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WEST FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH NEAR-NORMAL FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST, INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FAVORS A TILT TOWARD ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER WESTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH
STRONGER NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TIED TO TROUGHING AND ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE
HIGHLIGHTED. A TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD
AND BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE DYNAMICAL HEIGHT PATTERN IS OFFSET BY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 28 2025
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS RELATIVE TO THE ECENS AND
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
THE ECENS AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH
NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST IN THE EAST. MEANWHILE,
THE GEFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND LEANS IN THE DIRECTION OF A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE WEST BUT WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY. IN
ALASKA, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT WITH
REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM ALL
THREE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE ANOMALIES MAY
DEVELOP IN THE BERING SEA DURING THE PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION TRANSLATES TO THE
SURFACE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHERE THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL
PERSISTS SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEPICTED IN THE ECENS REFOREAST TOOL. NEAR-NORMAL IS
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ABOVE-NORMAL FAVORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WHILE TRANSIENT COOLING EPISODES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
WEEK-2, MJO PROPAGATION ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN SUPPORTS WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST LATER IN WEEK-2 AND INTO WEEK-3. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES
ARE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UNDERNEATH WEAK ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR HAWAII
IN WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING. THE BEST AGREEMENT IS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN WEEK-2, TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THE WEAK TROUGHING MAY LEAD
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA PARTICULARLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND DUE TO A
TRANSITION TO MORE RIDGING BY THE END OF WEEK-2. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AND A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19820313 - 19740306 - 19750314 - 19560303 - 19560226
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19740307 - 19560302 - 19750313 - 19820313 - 19800314
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 20 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 28 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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