992
FXUS01 KWBC 142029
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2025
VALID 00Z SAT MAR 15 2025 - 00Z MON MAR 17 2025
...DEEP CYCLONE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS, CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING LATER ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CULMINATE
WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT REACHING SOUTHWESTERN OREGON/FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST TO THE MUCH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT, ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATER ON
SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT RECORD
HIGH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 80 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS DEEP STORM WILL CONTINUE TO HERALD A WIDE
VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS WILL BE
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE CYCLONE.
MEANWHILE, AN OUTBREAK OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT. BY SATURDAY, A VIGOROUS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT OVER ARKANSAS. THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE LIFTED BY AN ENERGETIC
JET STREAM WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHERE UP TO A
MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY BY THE
EVENING HOURS. ALSO ON SATURDAY, COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEEP CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BRING A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. BLUSTERY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS
OF THESE AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
CYCLONE STARTING TO MOVE INTO CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPIDLY-DEEPENING TREND AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A POTENT COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. WARM AND
MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SURGE UP THE EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY GUST WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD.
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HAVE NO LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS A PARADE OF FRONTS AND CYCLONES TARGETS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WHILE HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA, ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WILL CULMINATE WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
REACHING SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA WHILE A FEW FEET OF NEW SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE
CASCASDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION OF
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN PUSHING ONSHORE BY THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COULD EXCEED 5
INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONCERNS OF FLASH
FLOODING, MUDSLIDES AND RIVER RUNOFFS. THE LOWER ELEVATION OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PERHAPS THE ONLY DRY LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND
BUT THE FIRST PACIFIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UP TO A FOOT OF
NEW SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
KONG
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