651
FXUS01 KWBC 150804
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 15 2025 - 12Z MON MAR 17 2025
..HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CASCADES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY; LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
EAST COAST BY MONDAY. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 5/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL THREAT
OF F2- EF5 TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND THE SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS ALSO AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI /TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, THE SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
FURTHERMORE, ON SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL
3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER
RIVERS.
IN ADDITION, HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. ALSO, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
MOREOVER, AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, ON SATURDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVY OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LIGHTER SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND RAIN AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE SNOW WILL END OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, ON SUNDAY, A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY. COASTAL
RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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