434
FXUS01 KWBC 152028
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 16 2025 - 00Z TUE MAR 18 2025
..HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AS A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IMPACTS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...
...A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EDGING CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
A LARGE AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A
HYPERACTIVE UPPER-AIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL DELIVER MORE WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT REACHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE
FIRST PIECE OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE FIRST CYCLONE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER INTENSE CYCLONE AND TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT, REACHING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS SECOND PHASE OF THE STORM
WILL DELIVER AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED WITH
LARGE HAIL, LIFE-THREATENING TORNADOES, AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS EMERGING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE TO OHIO
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE AND A POTENT COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE CYCLONE. BY SUNDAY, THE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST REGION WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND REACH SEVERE LEVELS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE MEANTIME, A
QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE. BY MONDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL END ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST, ALLOWING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO LINGER NEAR THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME WET SNOW MAY
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN MAINE AS COLDER
AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE EAST COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE, UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CULMINATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT ACROSS
OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EVENT WILL DELIVER A FEW FEET OF NEW SNOW FOR THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION
OF
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN PUSHING ONSHORE BY THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COULD EXCEED 5
INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONCERNS OF FLASH
FLOODING, MUDSLIDES AND
RIVER RUNOFFS. BY MONDAY, THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL TWO FEET OF
NEW SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
SNOW WILL THEN PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS IDAHO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, AFTER A RAPID COOL-DOWN
BEHIND THE DEEP CYCLONE ON SUNDAY, A RAPID WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. FIRE DANGER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS DRY WINDS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST DEVELOP.
KONG
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