194
FXUS02 KWBC 160706
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2025
VALID 12Z WED MAR 19 2025 - 12Z SUN MAR 23 2025
...CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST SNOWSTORM THREAT INTO MID-LATE WEEK...
..NORTHWEST WET PATTERN VIA A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE OF REASONABLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE OF THE 12 UTC
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET VALID FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IN A STORMY
PATTERN WITH OVERALL ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THIS
SOLUTION HAS GOOD ENSEMBLE AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS SUPPORT
WHILE MAINTAINING GOOD WPC CONTINUITY. LINGERING SYSTEM SPECIFIC
TIMING/FOCUS VARIANCES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN WELL MITIGATED BY A
COMPOSITE AS CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTABILITY. LATEST 00 UTC MODELS
ARE WELL IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION, INCLUDING THE GFS THAT
FAVORABLY TRENDED BACK TOWARD CONCENSUS. PREFERENCE SHIFTS TO THE
STILL COMPATIBLE GEFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT OFFER A
MORE CONSISTENT FORECAST BASIS AT LONGER TIME FRAMES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AMID STEADILY GROWING UNCERTAINTY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TO HIGHLIGHT FOR LATER THIS WEEK REMAINS
BEING THE GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL FOR A LATE WINTER SNOWSTORM THAT
MAY PRODUCE WINDY TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW WITH A DEEPENING LOW TRACK TO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK AND TO EASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL COOLING TO ENHANCE
UPSLOPE IN AN EMERGING WRAP-AROUND HEAVY SNOW THREAT FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BAND OF
MODERATE RAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ADJACENT/SOUTH OF THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION LINE, BUT NO WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) THREAT
AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. A WAVY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
LESS MOISTURE THAN AN EARLIER WEEK SYSTEM, BUT WILL ALIGN AND SWEEP
AN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S. THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR
INTERIOR/NORTHERN NORTHEAST. MOST ACTIVITY EXITS THE EAST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
WELL UPSTREAM, A PROTRACTED SERIES OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE AND
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL POOL LEAD MOISTURE
FEED/IVT TO SPREAD REPEAT PERIODS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION INLAND
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES IN A WET PATTERN.
MODERATELY HEAVY RAINS AND TERRAIN FOCUSING SNOWS ARE MOST LIKELY
VIA CHANNELED MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THIS PERIODIC PATTERN.
WHILE NO WPC ERO THREAT AREA HAS YET BEEN INTRODUCED, THE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF
ISSUES TO MONITOR. SUBSEQUENT MODEST DOWNSTREAM RAIN CHANCES MAY
EMERGE NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S., ALBEIT WITH
UNCERTAIN SYSTEM DETAILS AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENTS.
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES WILL
PROCEED THE THE INITIAL MID-WEEK SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON PROGRESSION OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL BE BRIEFLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGE THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS (5-10 DEGREES) INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN
CONTRAST, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WEST MID-NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TOWARDS
AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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