135
FXUS06 KWBC 171902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 17 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 27 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS DEPICT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AND BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 9 &
10, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND ARIZONA
EXCEEDING 80%. FURTHER EAST, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE EAST, EXCLUDING NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO PULL COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE FAVORED, KEEPING THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. IN ALASKA,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD WILL DISPLACE
PRECIPITATION NORTH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) TOOLS. IN THE EAST, AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING EASTWARD AND DEEPENING, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. IN
ALASKA, SIGNALS ARE QUITE WEAK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. THE STRONGEST SIGNALS ARE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE
NORTHWEST MAINLAND CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 31 2025
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ACROSS THE COUNTRY RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH DIMINISHED HEIGHT
ANOMALIES FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, LIKELY THE RESULT OF GREATER SPREAD
AMONG THE TOOLS. INITIAL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST IS MOST LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND. THE GEFS WOULD FAVOR THE TROUGH FURTHER
NORTH MAINTAINING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE
ECENS PUSHES THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH DISPLACING POSITIVE ANOMALIES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WEST. IN EITHER EVENT, AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES POSITIVE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE MOST LIKELY TO BUILD INTO
THE PLAINS, DISPLACING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS AND
THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY
THE END OF WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, MOST TOOLS SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AMONG THE TOOLS HOWEVER. IN HAWAII,
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING
70%. IN THE EAST, BELOW NORMAL IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO
VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST, FLORIDA, AND THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH WEAK SIGNALS IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR WEEK-2. IN HAWAII,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAVORED.
WEAK ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS DURING WEEK-2. ONSHORE FLOW IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE 6-10 DAY AND WEEK-2 PERIOD. AS THAT MOISTURE MOVES
EASTWARD WITH TIME, PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE FAVORED. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE
WEST LIMITING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. IN ALASKA,
WEAK SIGNALS CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND FAVORED TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. IN HAWAII, AGAIN, WEAK PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IN THE TOOLS, BUT
GENERALLY FAVORED TO SEE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND WITH WETTER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY FOR OAHU AND KAUAI.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AND A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750317 - 19610306 - 19820313 - 19800315 - 19750322
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19530320 - 19750316 - 19750321 - 19610306 - 19760327
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 23 - 27 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 31 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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