917
FXUS01 KWBC 180725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2025
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 18 2025 - 12Z THU MAR 20 2025
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY; LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY; AND HEAVY SNOW/ BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS AN EXTREME RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST BY
THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID
IN PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
FURTHERMORE, LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. THE SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT AND ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP COASTAL RAIN
AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT STARTS TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE, COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW RETURNS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLANS STORM MOVES
EASTWARD, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT, HEAVY SNOW BANDS BECOME ENHANCED BY LAKE SUPERIOR. VERY
DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE HEAVY AND
BLOWING SNOW, WHICH CAUSES ROADS TO BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND
DRAMATICALLY REDUCES VISIBILITY. AVOID TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE, SOUTH OF THE RAIN/SNOWLINE, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
A ROUND OF HIGH WINDS GUSTING TO 80 MPH WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE WINDS
COULD INCLUDE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
BOTH FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES AND DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING DUST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN EXTREME RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY DUE
TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER REDUCED SLIGHTLY AS THE SPC
ISSUED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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