071
FXUS06 KWBC 181902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 18 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28 2025
A PROGRESSIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER TROUGH IS THEN PREDICTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. RIDGING IS PREDOMINATELY FAVORED ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AS THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD A
NEGATIVE PHASE IN LATE MARCH. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND GREAT PLAINS, AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LARGEST
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (+/- 150 METERS) ARE ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES RESPECTIVELY. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE BERING
SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS ALASKA, WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASING FARTHER TO THE WEST, WITH THE STRONGEST
POSITIVE ANOMALIES (+240 METERS) FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN,
SOUTHWEST, AND ROCKIES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, EXCLUDING EASTERN MAINE AND SOUTH
FLORIDA WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
STATISTICAL TOOLS (ANALOGUES AND TELECONNECTIONS) SUPPORT A GREATER LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVEN THE INCREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. OVER ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND TIED TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA AND ENHANCED NORTHERLY
FLOW. CONVERSELY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
MAINLAND FAVORS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL CONTINUING OVER SOME OF
THESE AREAS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST TIED TO A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD FAVORS
A TILT TOWARD ENHANCED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN, WHILE TROUGHING APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST FAVORING AN INCREASE IN PACIFIC FLOW. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ALASKA, SIGNALS ARE GENERALLY WEAK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ALASKA. HIGHER PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT) OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA CLOSER TO THE POSITIVE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE INCREASED OVER HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, OFFSET
BY A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT A GENERAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF FEATURES REMAINS FAVORED. TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING LATER IN THE PERIOD, WITH A MORE
VARIABLE HEIGHT PATTERN PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE
EMERGING -PNA SUPPORTS MORE AMPLIFIED WAVELENGTHS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS, EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES (UP TO +300 METERS) ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WITH
THE MAGNITUDE DECREASING FARTHER EAST, BUT REMAINING POSITIVE ACROSS ALL OF
ALASKA DESPITE A TROUGH SIGNATURE REMAINING OVER CENTRAL ALASKA.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS FAVOR ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES OVER
THE WEST ARE DECREASED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ARE NOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS STILL FAVORED TO BE INFLUENCED BY TROUGHING
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD SUPPORTING ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW FAVORING A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAINLAND. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF ALASKA WITH WEAK SIGNALS IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TIED TO INCREASING PACIFIC FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. A SURFACE
LOW IS PREDICTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
THE PERIOD, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARD NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TRANSIENT RIDGING FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY THE UNCALIBRATED
ECENS AND GEFS. THE COVERAGE IS REDUCED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO
THE ECENS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS, FAR
ENOUGH DISPLACED FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. IN ALASKA, WEAK SIGNALS
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA CLOSE TO THE EXPANDING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BERING SEA.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF HAWAII, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KAUAI, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, OFFSET BY MORE VARIABILITY OVER THE CONUS.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750317 - 19610305 - 19820313 - 19740306 - 19750322
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750316 - 20050331 - 19750321 - 19610306 - 19530322
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 28 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - APR 01, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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