515
FXUS01 KWBC 190747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2025
VALID 12Z WED MAR 19 2025 - 12Z FRI MAR 21 2025
...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY; LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE CASCADES
ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. THE DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THEN PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
LIKELY COMBINE WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
FURTHERMORE, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW, THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
MOREOVER, THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WILL CREATE SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. AVOID
TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE, AND HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL.
THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD THREAT ENDS ON THURSDAY AS LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST. FURTHER, AN AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
IN ADDITION, ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHICH HAS THE MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE MIDWEST. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND MULTIPLE TORNADOES. THERE IS AN
ADDED THREAT OF EF 2 TO EF 5 TORNADOES OVER THE AREA.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS BY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY, RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL LINGER
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS
PROMPTED THE SPC TO ISSUE A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CREATE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL CREATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE
CASCADES ON THURSDAY. MOREOVER, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
ZIEGENFELDER
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