596
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 19 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS DEPICT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A STRONG
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST TO THE WEST OF ALASKA, LEADING TO
WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE STATE. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE
PLAINS BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION, EXCEEDING 80%. FURTHER EAST, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
EXCLUDING MAINE AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO PULL
COOLER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH MAINE AND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN AHEAD OR ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD,
REDUCING CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN
ALASKA, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH
GENERALLY WEAK TROUGHING FAVORED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED IN SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
FORECAST ALOFT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TRAVERSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION IN THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE THIS IS ONE OF THE DRIEST TIMES OF YEAR, NEARLY ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN THE SOUTHEAST, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD AND ANY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION EXCITING THE REGION PRIOR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH LOW SIGNALS IN
THE GUIDANCE BUT NOTABLY WETTER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. IN ALASKA, THERE ARE
VERY WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH THE STRONGEST
GUIDANCE FAVORING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2025
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFFSHORE AREAS
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, LEADING TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WEAK RIDGING ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS LIFTS OUT
INTO EASTERN CANADA. IN ALASKA, STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN
FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA LEADING TO WEAK TROUGHING FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 TO 70%. IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING FORECAST TO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
RAPIDLY DISPLACE THE BRIEFLY COLDER AIR FORECAST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
WEAK SIGNALS IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR WEEK-2. IN HAWAII, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAVORED.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DURING WEEK-2. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG AND NEAR THE WEST COAST AND BRING ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. AS THIS
MOISTURE MOVES INLAND, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO ERODE BELOW
NORMAL CHANCES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERIOR WEST RELATIVE TO
PRIOR FORECASTS AND BRING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE
ECENS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GEFS HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
BUT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS INTO WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. IN
HAWAII, A DRIER FORECAST IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS WITH NEAR
NORMAL FAVORED FURTHER WEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AMONG THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750317 - 19610305 - 19740302 - 19820313 - 20050329
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750317 - 19610306 - 19740301 - 19740306 - 19820312
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 25 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - APR 02, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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