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FXUS06 KWBC 201925
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 20 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - 30 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THESE MODELS PREDICT MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND ADJACENT WEST COAST DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE BERING SEA, WITH
A WEAK TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. A MODERATE RIDGE IS FORECAST
FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIRDS
OF THE CONUS TO THE GULF COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, WHICH
INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND FROM MOST OF THE PLAINS
WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
FOR ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR APPROXIMATELY THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND, ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH THE AUTO-TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND PROXIMITY TO THE STRONG BERING SEA
RIDGE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ELSEWHERE ASSOCIATED WITH GENERALLY
WEAK TROUGHING. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED BASED
ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF CALIFORNIA, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGING. FARTHER NORTH, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THAT AREA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT PREDICTED FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THIS IS ONE OF THE DRIEST TIMES OF YEAR FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO THIS REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RESIDUAL DRYNESS IS
DEPICTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. IN ALASKA,
THERE ARE VERY WEAK PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH THE
STRONGEST GUIDANCE FAVORING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
OVER APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS IS OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 03, 2025
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ADJACENT U.S.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, LEADING TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WEAK
RIDGING ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING PREDICTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS INTO EASTERN CANADA.
IN ALASKA, STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND FAR WESTERN ALASKA, LEADING TO WEAK TROUGHING FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. RELATIVE TO
THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT, AND
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED IN EXTENT. EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS, MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WIDESPREAD AREA
OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ATTRIBUTED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND
UPPER MID-ATLANTIC, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DUE TO A RECEDING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA FAVORS INCREASED ODDS
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE, EXCEPT THE ALEUTIANS WHERE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED CLOSER TO THE STRONG BERING SEA
RIDGE. IN HAWAII, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING FAVORED.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST COAST DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD BASED ON A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE GEFS AND ECENS
IVT TOOLS PREDICT LATE-PERIOD STORMINESS REACHING ABOUT 35N LATITUDE, OR THE
APPROXIMATE LATITUDE OF SANTA BARBARA, CA. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
STALL ALONG AND NEAR THE WEST COAST AND BRING ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS BEFORE INTERACTING WITH ONE OR
MORE SURFACE CYCLONES FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. ODDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 40 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, THE EASTERN CORN BELT, AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. RETURN
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INCREASES
THE CHANCES FOR ANOMALOUSLY WET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ALASKA, THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND AUTO-PRECIPITATION
TOOL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND THE
ALEUTIANS, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, A MIX OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING WEEK-2, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF
TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ALASKA OUTLOOKS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750317 - 20050329 - 19760323 - 19610306 - 19820312
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750316 - 20050329 - 19760323 - 19610306 - 19750321
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 26 - 30 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 28 - APR 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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