411
FXUS01 KWBC 211855
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025
VALID 00Z SAT MAR 22 2025 - 00Z MON MAR 24 2025
...WET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS MULTIPLE PACIFIC SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PACIFIC SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, SPREADING A MIX OF LOWER ELEVATION RAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWS THROUGH THE REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE COASTAL RANGES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GENERALLY MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATION INLAND AREAS. WINTER
WEATHER-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF
THE AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF A 12"+ OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO QUICKLY
RAMP BACK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
LIKELY FOR UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE OLYMPIC RANGES AND NORTHERN
CASCADES IN WASHINGTON, AND SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP FOR THE NORTHERN
CASCADES AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL.
RAIN SHOWERS AND INTERIOR/HIGHER ELEVATION SHOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANOTHER
SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT SNOWS FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. TO
THE WEST, A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE FIRST PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEASTWARD WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY FROM THE ARKLATEX EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) AS
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AS
WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO. INCREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TO THE NORTH, A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
WHERE COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4", LOCALLY HIGHER, POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY, THE MOST CRITICAL RISK (LEVEL
2/3) AS NOTED FROM THE SPC WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS, WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (LEVEL 1/3) ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ON
SATURDAY, THE MOST CRITICAL RISK WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH PERIODIC COLD FRONT
PASSAGES WILL BRING VARYING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH
OF THE EAST COAST WILL SEE A WARM UP WITH MILD TO WARM, ABOVE
AVERAGE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THE GREAT
LAKES WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY AND BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY
BEFORE CONDITIONS MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL ALSO SEE A MILD, ABOVE
AVERAGE SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER, CLOSER TO AVERAGE CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL
GENERALLY BE COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE
WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE.
PUTNAM
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