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FXUS06 KWBC 211902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 21 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - 31 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THESE MODELS PREDICT MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA/NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE BERING
SEA/WESTERN ALASKA, WITH A WEAK TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALASKA. WEAK ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST FROM WESTERN CANADA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL, SOUTHWESTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES,
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND AN INCREASING TENDENCY TOWARDS ZONAL
FLOW. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, WHICH
INCLUDES THE WEST COAST AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED
TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR ALASKA,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ONLY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTS (RELATED TO ONSHORE FLOW), FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS (IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONG BERING SEA RIDGE).
IN CONTRAST, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, DUE TO THE PREDICTION OF AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTING ENHANCED EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. IN HAWAII, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND
THE AUTO BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. IN THE WEST, THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. MOST PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE PREDICTS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO AT LEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
WAY DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STREAM EASTWARD
ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE WEST, WHERE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. EAST OF THE ROCKIES, MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS EXCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
INCLUDES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, DESPITE WHAT IS TYPICALLY
ONE OF THE DRIEST TIMES OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. IN ALASKA, THE
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND, WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND AUTO BLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS IS OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 04, 2025
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WEEK-2 MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ADJACENT U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, LEADING TO
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THIS REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGING FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 PERIOD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN LOWER
48 STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA. IN ALASKA, STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA, LEADING TO WEAK
TROUGHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48
STATES IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECASTED BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION
PATTERN. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES (60-70 PERCENT) ARE DEPICTED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER, AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES,
LARGELY DUE TO THE PREDICTED INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND SUPPORTED BY
THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS. OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN, EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THE ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS WAS NOTED
EARLIER IN THE 6-10 DAY DISCUSSION. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED IN WEEK-2, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND THE AUTO BLEND.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND EASTERN CONUS BASED ON A NUMBER OF PRECIPITATION
TOOLS, WITH SIMILAR REASONING FROM THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALONG
THE WEST COAST, THE GEFS AND ECENS IVT TOOLS PREDICT MID TO LATE-PERIOD
STORMINESS REACHING ABOUT 34N OR 35N LATITUDE, OR THE APPROXIMATE LATITUDE OF
LOS ANGELES, CA. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG AND NEAR THE
WEST COAST, BRINGING ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WEATHERWISE IS PREDICTED TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK-2, WITH A
DECLINE DURING THE SECOND HALF. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FOR THE CONUS IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. WITH THE FORECASTED WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING NOTED EARLIER FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES, MOST TOOLS FAVOR AN EXPANSION OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECENS WHICH FAVORS LITTLE IF ANY EXPANSION OF
RELATIVE DRYNESS. IN ALASKA, THE MAJORITY OF OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FAVORS A
SIMILAR PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO THAT OF THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH
FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND, AND FAVORED BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE MAINLAND ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, A MIX OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DURING WEEK-2, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF
TOOLS AND THE AUTO BLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALASKA OUTLOOKS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750318 - 19760323 - 20050329 - 19590401 - 19640302
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19760324 - 20050329 - 19750316 - 19750321 - 19610306
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 27 - 31 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE B A
MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 04, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS B A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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