408
FXUS01 KWBC 221912
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 23 2025 - 00Z TUE MAR 25 2025
...SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY AS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT EMERGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...
...MORE WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...
...FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS TODAY WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE A LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BEGIN SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF
MOISTURE/WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY
BE SEVERE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL. THEN, ON SUNDAY, MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
EFFECT AS INCREASING SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL LEAD TO SOME
MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND
THE TENDENCY FOR REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE SLOWING
COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON MONDAY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF COASTS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WELL AS THE RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
TO THE NORTH, A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN FOR SNOWFALL
OF 3-6" AS WELL AS A GLAZE TO A 0.1" OF ICE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, WITH A WINTRY MIX LIKELY FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND RAINFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A COUPLE INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN ACTIVE STORM PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE. SOME LINGERING LOWER ELEVATION RAINS/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. MOIST
FLOW ALONG THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES IN WASHINGTON WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING, WITH MUCH LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH TOTALS OVER A FOOT
POSSIBLE.
A COMBINATION OF VERY DRY, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FOR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF
SATURDAY, WITH AN ELEVATED RISK (LEVEL 1/3) ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN ELEVATED RISK WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE WARMING, ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. IN A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN. HIGHS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN,
CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S ON SUNDAY INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ON MONDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY, WITH 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST, 70S AND
80S IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND 80S AND 90S INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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